The news was full of stories about the dramatic rise of Reform and the equally dramatic drop for Labour and the Conservatives on Friday 2 May, following the local election results and the first by-election of the current Parliament. There was little other news coverage – give or take an interview with Prince Harry. There was, however, a story few seemed to notice…
The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) chose Friday 2 May to publish the terms of reference for its independent commission into adult social care in England. The commission was first announced in early January 2025, to be headed by Baroness Louise Casey. Its launch followed Rachel Reeves’ decision in July 2024 to abandon her predecessor’s plan to cap fees for social care in England from October 2025. This scheme had already been deferred several times since its framework was set up by the Care Act 2014.
The Chancellor’s cull almost went unnoticed while focus remained on her scrapping of the universal Winter Fuel Allowance. However, the consequences were brought into stark contrast by the release of the Casey commission’s terms of reference on 2 May. This confirmed that the commission would have two separate phases:
- Phase 1 (medium term) This phase “…set out the plan for how to implement a national care service”. In a fine piece of Whitehall speak, the terms require that “The commission’s work on medium-term reform will be a data-driven deep-dive into the current system”. Given the number of inquiries, reviews and even a Royal Commission that has examined the subject over the years, it is hard to imagine any significant new insights emerging. Nevertheless, the commission will have until 2026 to report.
- Phase 2 (long term) This second two-year phase will look at “…how services must be organised…and discuss alternative models that could be considered in future to deliver a fair and affordable adult care system”. In other words, it will consider the question that has stonewalled every proposal to date – how to pay for care.
How long before a new system arrives? The possible answer may well lie in that choice of publication date: “The commission should produce tangible, pragmatic recommendations that can be implemented in a phased way over a decade”, which means by 2036. Meanwhile, the upper capital limit for English local authority funding support remains at £23,250, where it has been since April 2010. With no clear timeline for adult social care reform, care costs could remain a significant consideration for individuals in long-term financial planning.